To quote Bob Dylan, “there was music in the cafés at night and revolution in the air” (Tangled up in Blue). We’ve seen Tunisia discard its long-time strongman Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. And all week Egypt has seen street demonstrations and riots on a scale not seen in decades. It seems that the Middle East is seething with revolutionary fervor. But, these revolutions aren’t rooted in Islamism. Rather than the discarded underclass rising up, it is the nascent middle class that is taking to the streets (at least so far in Tunisia and Egypt). The chant is for democracy, not theocracy. These people are demanding a voice and a vote in the future of their country. Read more

Well, Steve Jobs is taking a leave of absence from Apple for health reasons, again. The last time he did this, the whole affair was cloaked in mystery for a couple of months before the company finally admitted that Jobs wasn’t in the office every day running the company. This time, Jobs himself reported that he was going to take another sabbatical to work on his health. The difference tells us a lot about Apple and Jobs. Read more

It is time again to worry about earnings and warnings. This is the beginning of the earnings reporting season for fourth quarter 2010 periods. The beauty of this time of year and the problem is that 2010 doesn’t matter anymore. We are in 2011 already and that means that the forecasts of management for the future take on extra meaning. That is problematic as most managements have a distinct bias toward under-promising so they can later over-deliver on their guesses. This conservatism can be mistaken for a downbeat outlook. Just remember Cisco’s outlook in October that crushed that stock, just because they weren’t forecasting a stronger future than either their suppliers or competitors, good but not good enough. That could be one factor that keeps visiting negative surprises on this market. Read more

The end of every year brings the desire to recount the good and the bad of the year ending and look forward to the year about to begin. It is natural to think is those terms, this period is ending and the next beginning. But, the market doesn’t do that. The market is always looking forward to the next thing. Most of us are just now beginning to think about the new year, but the market has been looking toward it (and the next one) for a long time. Unless something really surprising happens, the market already has a pretty good notion of what is going to happen next year. Generally, the notion is that next year will be a pretty benign period for the world, the various economies and most markets. It may not be all that great for bonds, but it should be pretty good for stocks, commodities and maybe even property. That is why we’re setting new recovery highs all the time these days. Read more

Silent Night

I recently remembered an NFL game quite a few years ago between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.  (Note:  I had to look up the date, and was surprised to find out it was Dec. 20, 1980-by pure coincidence, this marks the 30th anniversary…)  Normally, this wouldn’t have stood out in memory, but this particular game was a little bit different.  It was called the “silent game,” because NBC had decided on an experiment of using no announcers through the entire broadcast.  All you got were the sounds of plays, the crowd, referee’s whistles, tackling, etc.  No commentary on the action.  You were left to make your own interpretations and it forced a focus on some of the more subtle (or just appreciate the more obvious) aspects of the game, since so much of that was usually intertwined with audio commentary.  It ended up being much like attending a game in person, but without a stadium announcer and only occasional flashes of data and scores on the screen.  I remember thinking that, in a way, it was kind of refreshing… but, obviously, the idea never took hold.  It’s hard to imagine that happening today, with so much riding on the personalities and “expert” analysis of the action, during the game itself and in the accompanying coverage. Read more