It’s About Time

Time is of the essence. Time flies. It’s about time! We fret about time all the time. We mark various anniversaries on a regular basis, the beginning of spring, your birthday, holidays and other special occasions. We have a calendar full of such days. The markets have just marked a couple of anniversaries as well. This past March 10th, it was the 10th anniversary of the peak of the tech bubble. On March 9th, it was the first anniversary of the bull market that started a year ago at the bottom of the last bear market. It is an interesting coincidence that the two days should fall so close together on the calendar. Read more

When was it, a week ago? We were waxing worriedly (enough alliteration) about the resistance right above us for the major market indices. Well, that is all pointless now as we’ve technically broken out above resistance and made marginal new highs. The leader in this effort was the NASDAQ, which actually broke above its January highs a couple of weeks ago and now is clearly in new recovery high territory. All the hoopla about the NAZ being a big loser over the past ten years means nothing to this current run. It is all about “what have you done for me lately?” The NAZ has been the leader in this bull market and looks like it doesn’t want to give up the lead.
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We have to thank Mark Hulbert of the Hulbert Financial Digest for regular reminders about contrarianism. The latest consumer confidence and consumer sentiment data are not a reason to worry about the length or strength of the economic recovery or the market advance. He notes that consumer sentiment is very much a lagging indicator and in times past has bottomed well after the onset of bull markets and economic recoveries. The current low for consumer sentiment was way back in May last year, although we aren’t that far from those levels after this past month’s reading. Typically, consumer sentiment turns several months after the onset of recovery and even further after the onset of bull markets. The recent reports are just a couple more bricks in the wall of worry that this bull market must climb. Read more