This week, a few indicators again surfaced that investors took as counter to the trend that the U.S. economy is in an extended soft patch.<\/p>\n
Retail sales<\/strong> turned out being much better than expected in July, up +0.8% versus a forecast of +0.3%.\u00a0 Non-core and core sales were roughly similar; pointing to across the board strength, but the best performances came from non-store (Internet) retail, sporting goods, furniture, and health\/personal care items.<\/p>\n Industrial production<\/strong> was up solidly in July\u2014by +0.6%, just a bit above the expected figure.\u00a0 This was largely driven by manufacturing, much of which was due to an over-3% rise in vehicle production.\u00a0 Mining and utilities output also gained.<\/p>\n From a regional side, the New York Fed\u2019s Empire manufacturing<\/strong> survey<\/strong> weakened by -5.9 in August, which ran counter to expectations for a flat reading.\u00a0 New orders and shipments declined, while inventories improved and employment index held steady.\u00a0 The Philadelphia Fed index<\/strong> did improve, but not by as much as expected for August and remains negative.\u00a0 Here, shipments fell, employment was flat and new orders improved a bit, however.<\/p>\n The Conference Board Index of Leading Economic Indicators<\/strong> increased in July by +0.4% to 95.8, which reversed a decline by the same amount for June.\u00a0 Large contributions came from housing permits and unemployment claims.\u00a0 The coincident economic index, which measures current conditions, increased a similar +0.3% in July to 105.1, and the lagging indicator was also positive.\u00a0 The six-month growth rate for both appears to be stabilizing a bit.<\/p>\n The University of Michigan consumer sentiment <\/strong>survey improved in the August report, and at a higher rate than expected (from July\u2019s 72.3 to 73.6\u2014consensus had called for no change).\u00a0 The report was highlighted by better \u2018current\u2019 conditions while \u2018expectations\u2019 fell a bit.\u00a0 Long-term inflation expectations rose on both the 1-year and 5-10 year look-ahead measures\u2014from 3.0% to 3.6% on the former and from 2.7% to 3.0% on the latter.\u00a0 No doubt, higher commodity prices recently have contributed to this and tend to rise to the front of consumers\u2019 minds.<\/p>\n Speaking of inflation, the Producer Price Index<\/strong> came in at +0.3% for July, just a shade above forecast.\u00a0 The core PPI was up a greater-than expected +0.4% (to a +2.6% year-over-year increase), but some of this increase was due to higher prices for cars and tobacco.\u00a0 The Consumer Price Index<\/strong> for July was flat, which was less than expected (taking the year-over-year gain to +1.4%), while the Core CPI figure that excludes food energy prices gained +0.1% (+2.1% year-over-year).\u00a0 In the general index, price weakness in public transportation, vehicles and lodging (hotel) offset strength in owners\u2019 equivalent rent.\u00a0 In coming months, a bounceback in energy prices and food price increases due to widespread American drought conditions may be something to watch for in upcoming CPI figures.<\/p>\n Housing offered some interesting numbers last week.\u00a0 Housing starts<\/strong> fell in July by -1.1% down to 746k units, which was largely in line with an expected 756k or so.\u00a0 The composition is still a little skewed, as single-family starts fell -6.5% and multi-family (apartments) gained +12.4%.\u00a0 Building permits<\/strong> were up +6.8%, though, on the month, which was much larger than expected and can be taken as a small positive.\u00a0 The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index<\/strong> rose from 35 in July to 37 in August, which was better than consensus calls for no change.\u00a0 This is now at its highest level since early 2007, and reflects improvements in current and expected sales as well as prospective buyer traffic.<\/p>\n There continues to be underbuilding in the housing market overall, as apartments have taken the place of a buying a home for many.\u00a0 This isn\u2019t entirely surprising, considering the depths of the burst housing bubble and aftermath in tightened credit requirements, but does take time to unwind and correct.\u00a0 Construction of single-family homes remains almost 50% below the long-term trend and 40% below the approximately 1.25 million units needed annually to keep up with demographic growth.\u00a0 At the same time, multi-family dwellings are 15% below trend.\u00a0 While there is some slack to make up for here, continued demand with ongoing reduced supply (especially if demand rises for any reason) may result in some inflationary pressures on the housing front, which translates into CPI.<\/p>\n Initial jobless claims<\/strong> rose a few thousand to 366k for the week ended Aug. 11, which was within 1k of forecast, and the four-week moving average fell.\u00a0 Small numbers, though, so well within the margin error (which is quite surprisingly large).\u00a0 Continuing claims fell 31k to 3305k for the Aug. 4 week, largely as expected.<\/p>\n The Eurozone economies contracted by -0.2% for the 2nd quarter, which was a slight decline from the roughly flat reading from the 1st quarter of this year.\u00a0 The story is, of course, mixed, as Germany\u2019s economy rose by 0.3% and France\u2019s was flat.\u00a0 These numbers were slightly better than expected, even if not by much, which boosted markets in response to some extent.<\/p>\n Market Notes <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Period ending 8\/17\/2012<\/strong><\/td>\n 1 Week (%)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n YTD (%)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10.58<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.95<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 14.36<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2.33<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 11.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.90<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 7.80<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n -0.84<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5.97<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n -0.63<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.75<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n 3 Mo.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2 Yr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5 Yr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10 Yr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30 Yr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.02<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.25<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.83<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1.89<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.89<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.27<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.71<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1.65<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.74<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.09<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.81<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1.81<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.93<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Small-caps outperformed large caps in the generally risk-on week.\u00a0 In a similar theme, technology and consumer discretionary stocks, while more defensive utility and health care stocks lagged.\u00a0 Developed market stocks performed decently, due to GDP expectations largely being met in Europe.\u00a0 However, emerging markets fell, for a large part perhaps due to an expected rate cut by China not coming to pass.\u00a0 Such lack of action tends to perpetuate investor concerns over a \u2018soft landing,\u2019 and equity markets there have certainly reflected that there this year.<\/p>\n Bonds were down with higher Treasury rates, most notably on the longer end, while \u2018credit,\u2019 such as high yield gained slightly.\u00a0 Foreign bonds were generally down as well.<\/p>\n Commodity returns were led by a strong bounceback in energy futures (up nearly 3%), while grains and metals lost a bit of ground on the week.<\/p>\n Summer slow volumes continue, which has been a nice break from volatility.\u00a0 However, as we enter September and October, seasonal tendencies have historically tended to kick in again.<\/p>\n Have a good week.<\/p>\n Karl Schroeder, RFC, CSA, AACEP<\/p>\n Investment Advisor Representative<\/p>\n Schroeder Financial Services, Inc.<\/p>\n 480-895-0611<\/p>\n Sources:\u00a0 FocusPoint Solutions, Associated Press, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, Morgan Stanley, MSCI, Morningstar, Northern Trust, Oppenheimer Funds, Payden & Rygel, PIMCO, Thomson Reuters, Schroder\u2019s, Standard & Poor\u2019s, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, Wells Capital Management, Yahoo!, Zacks Investment Research.\u00a0 Index performance is shown as total return, which includes dividends, with the exception of MSCI-EM, which is quoted as price return\/excluding dividends.\u00a0 Performance for the MSCI-EAFE and MSCI-EM indexes is quoted in U.S. Dollar investor terms.<\/p>\n The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness.\u00a0 All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.\u00a0 Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product.\u00a0 Schroeder Financial Services, Inc. is a registered investment advisor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" This week, a few indicators again surfaced that investors took as counter to the trend that the U.S. economy is in an extended soft patch. Retail sales turned out being much better than expected in July, up +0.8% versus a forecast of +0.3%.\u00a0 Non-core and core sales were roughly similar; pointing to across the boardRead more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-finance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=902"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/902\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":903,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/902\/revisions\/903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n\n
\n \n \n \n \n DJIA<\/td>\n \n \n \n S&P 500<\/td>\n \n \n \n Russell 2000<\/td>\n \n \n \n MSCI-EAFE<\/td>\n \n \n \n MSCI-EM<\/td>\n \n \n \n BarCap U.S. Aggregate<\/td>\n \n \n \n\n
\n U.S. Treasury Yields<\/strong><\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n 12\/31\/2011<\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n 8\/10\/2012<\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n 8\/17\/2012<\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n