<\/p>\n
It was a relatively short week for economic data due to Thanksgiving, causing many to end the week on Wednesday afternoon, but some interesting housing numbers were worthy of mention.<\/p>\n
Existing home sales<\/strong> rose in October by +2.1%, which was a surprise relative to the expected lower by -0.1% result.\u00a0 The gain was the result of gains in both single-family and condo sales.\u00a0 Housing starts<\/strong> in October also gained, in line with other housing numbers\u2014up +3.6% which countered expectations of a -3.7% decline.\u00a0 Multi-family housing continued to be the big winner on the month, while single-family starts were generally flat.\u00a0 Whether there was an impact from Hurricane Sandy on the results isn\u2019t yet clear in the preliminary data, but any adjustments should become more apparent in coming months.\u00a0 Housing permits<\/strong>, on the other hand, fell -2.7%, which was a few tenths of a percent better than forecast.<\/p>\n The NAHB index<\/strong> of\u00a0home-builder\u00a0sentiment rose to 46 for November, which represented a gain from October and higher resulted than the 41 level forecast.\u00a0 The levels of current sales and expected future sales both rose, which led to the bullish result.\u00a0 As a leading indicator of activity, this is certainly a plus.<\/p>\n We\u2019re continuing to see better results in the housing world.\u00a0 These have been focused on multi-family generally, as seen in the housing starts number from last month, although we\u2019ve seen single-family increases as well.\u00a0 Why is this?\u00a0 Part of the answer is intuitive from the aftermath of the housing bubble.\u00a0 Instead of keeping a steady, conservative approach throughout, lenders were, for the most part, very lenient with lending standards for many years and were seriously burned when the bubble burst.\u00a0 So, they went to the opposite extreme and tightened credit severely.\u00a0 While conditions have become less restrictive, they remain tight and many potential homeowners find themselves unable to qualify for a loan or come up with the now-larger required down payment.\u00a0 Rental units like apartments have provided the stopgap.<\/p>\n The Conference Board\u2019s release of leading economic indicators<\/strong> for October rose +0.2% for the month, which was one tick higher than expected.\u00a0 An improvement in credit conditions (and a steeper yield curve) was the primary catalyst for the change this month.\u00a0 For the last six months, improvements in residential construction have also helped, which has offset weaker manufacturing orders and employment components.<\/p>\n On the sentiment side, the Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment indicator<\/strong> for November came in at 82.7, which was a shade below the expected 84.5 figure.\u00a0 In the underlying survey, consumer opinions of present conditions declined slightly, while expectations for future conditions fell about three points. \u00a0The weaker investment market may have accounted for some of this, as it tends to be fairly correlated to the survey\u2014as well as a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts.\u00a0 Anticipated inflation remained within the long-term range of the upper 2\u2019s to near 3%.\u00a0 This hasn\u2019t changed much overall, despite periodic inflation fears and quantitative easing activity.<\/p>\n In the employment results, initial jobless claims<\/strong> fell for the Nov. 17 ending week to 410k\u2014right in line with the expected number.\u00a0 However, claims remain higher than they probably should, due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy on both job losses (temporary and permanent) and reporting of data from affected areas.\u00a0 New Jersey and New York results already show a relatively large surge in claims.\u00a0 This may well continue for weeks and\/or months during rebuilding efforts.\u00a0 Continuing claims<\/strong> for the Nov. 10 ending week were 3,337k, which was a bit lower than the 3,345k forecast.<\/p>\n The elephant in the room is the \u2018fiscal cliff\u2019<\/strong> debate.\u00a0 The biggest point of contention between parties appears to be the concept and\/or threshold on upper-income tax rates.\u00a0 The final agreement might depend on the definition of \u2018upper-income\u2019 (whether it be $250k, $500k, or $1 mil. in income), but could also include changes to \u2018tax preference\u2019 items such as certain itemized deductions for corporations and\/or individuals.<\/p>\n The good news is that we appear to be getting closer to a deal\u2014in concept.\u00a0 Of course, in terms of timing, we know Congress\u2019 track record.<\/p>\n Market Notes <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Period ending 11\/23\/2012<\/strong><\/td>\n 1 Week (%)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n YTD (%)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 3.42<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 9.15<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 3.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 14.32<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 4.00<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10.29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 4.81<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 12.32<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2.69<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 8.68<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n -0.30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.08<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n 3 Mo.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2 Yr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5 Yr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10 Yr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30 Yr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.02<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.25<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.83<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1.89<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.89<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.06<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.24<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.62<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1.58<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.73<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.70<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1.70<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.83<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n In the abbreviated week, stocks gained, led by a flurry on Monday to due optimistic thoughts about the President and Congress becoming more amicable to a \u2018fiscal cliff\u2019 deal.\u00a0 In the S&P, materials and consumer discretionary outperformed, while defensive utilities and health care underperformed on the week.\u00a0 Some preliminary \u2018Black Friday\u2019 sales figures have come out, and the results are good so far (online Friday sales allegedly topped $1 Billion\u2014a new record, and 20% higher than 2011), which could bode well for consumer stocks if the trend continues.<\/p>\n Small-caps outgained large-caps, while developed market foreign stocks ended up having the best week of any equity group.\u00a0 France, Italy and Germany were among the best performing countries on the week, while Japan and emerging markets such as India and Brazil generally lagged.<\/p>\n With interest rates rising, government bonds (especially on the longer end) lost ground, while high yield corporates, floating rate and foreign bonds ended positively.<\/p>\n REITs were all up on the week, with U.S. industrial and retail REITs outperforming, while European, Asian and domestic residential lagging.<\/p>\n In the commodity asset class, all groups were higher as well.\u00a0 Markets were led by precious metals and industrial metals, with energy not far behind\u2014up just over 2%.<\/p>\n Have a good week.<\/p>\n Karl Schroeder, RFC<\/p>\n Investment Advisor Representative<\/p>\n Schroeder Financial Services, Inc.<\/p>\n 480-895-0611<\/p>\n Sources:\u00a0 FocusPoint Solutions, Associated Press, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, Morgan Stanley, MSCI, Morningstar, Northern Trust, Oppenheimer Funds, Payden & Rygel, PIMCO, Thomson Reuters, Schroder\u2019s, Standard & Poor\u2019s, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, Wells Capital Management, Yahoo!, Zacks Investment Research.\u00a0 Index performance is shown as total return, which includes dividends, with the exception of MSCI-EM, which is quoted as price return\/excluding dividends.\u00a0 Performance for the MSCI-EAFE and MSCI-EM indexes is quoted in U.S. Dollar investor terms.<\/p>\n The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness.\u00a0 All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.\u00a0 Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product.\u00a0 Schroeder Financial Services, Inc. is a registered investment advisor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It was a relatively short week for economic data due to Thanksgiving, causing many to end the week on Wednesday afternoon, but some interesting housing numbers were worthy of mention. Existing home sales rose in October by +2.1%, which was a surprise relative to the expected lower by -0.1% result.\u00a0 The gain was theRead more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-finance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/931","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=931"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/931\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":932,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/931\/revisions\/932"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=931"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=931"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=931"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n\n
\n \n \n \n \n DJIA<\/td>\n \n \n \n S&P 500<\/td>\n \n \n \n Russell 2000<\/td>\n \n \n \n MSCI-EAFE<\/td>\n \n \n \n MSCI-EM<\/td>\n \n \n \n BarCap U.S. Aggregate<\/td>\n \n \n \n\n
\n U.S. Treasury Yields<\/strong><\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n 12\/31\/2011<\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n 11\/16\/2012<\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n 11\/23\/2012<\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n