Manufacturing related news:<\/p>\n
(-) Superstorm Sandy\u2019s impact is still being felt in the manufacturing sector.\u00a0 The December Empire State Manufacturing Survey came in at -8.1, weaker than the expected -1.0.\u00a0 The general business conditions for New York manufacturers have been declining at a modest pace for five consecutive months.\u00a0 The new orders index dropped to -3.7 from November\u2019s +3.08.\u00a0 The shipments index decreased six points from the prior month to 8.83.\u00a0 Manufacturers in the New York City metro area reported roughly 7% lower revenues in October and about 5% revenue loss in November because of Sandy.\u00a0 Indexes for the six-month outlook remained weaker than their levels earlier this year, though most future indexes were higher than in November.<\/p>\n
(+) The Philadelphia Fed released its December 2012 business outlook survey.\u00a0 The district\u2019s manufacturing conditions beat market expectations.\u00a0 The current activity index was up 8.1%, reversing the downward trend of -10.7% in October due to Sandy\u2019s impact.\u00a0 New orders, shipments and employment activities all improved.\u00a0 The survey\u2019s future indexes predict increased activity over the first half of next year.<\/p>\n
Real estate related news:<\/p>\n
(+) The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index rose by one point to reach 47 in December, marking its eighth consecutive rising month.\u00a0 Yet the index trails the median forecast.\u00a0 Meanwhile, builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes grew to the highest level since April of 2006.<\/p>\n
(-) Housing starts in November declined by 4.1% to an annual rate of 565,000 in the single-family category, lower than the October figure of 589,000.\u00a0 In the multi-family category, November had an annual rate of 861,000 housing starts, 3% below October\u2019s estimate of 888,000 but up 21.6% since November 2011.\u00a0 The decline in starts was felt mostly in the West and to a lesser extent in the Midwest.\u00a0 Data on housing starts were a little disappointing from month-over-month comparison but continued improving in terms of year-over-year reading.<\/p>\n
(+) Overall building permits exceeded investors\u2019 expectations.\u00a0 Multi-family permits posted a solid 3.6% month-over-month gain with an annual rate of 899,000.\u00a0 Single-family permits were at a rate of 565,000, 0.2% weaker than the October figure.<\/p>\n
(+) Existing home sales for November rose 5.9% to an annual rate of 5.04 million, exceeding expectations by 3.8%.\u00a0 Sales were 14.5% higher than last November\u2019s 4.4 million-unit pace.\u00a0 The South saw sales rise the most with a 7.9% increase and the West gained the least with a 0.8% increase.\u00a0 Not only did the number of completed sales transactions pick up, but home prices also recovered due to the low supply in inventory.\u00a0 The total housing inventory at the end of November fell 3.8% to 2.03 million, which represents a 4.8-month supply. This is the lowest inventory level since September 2005.\u00a0 As a result, the national median existing home price was up 10.1% year-over year in November, marking the ninth consecutive monthly price increase.<\/p>\n
Other major news:<\/p>\n
(0) Initial jobless claims in the week ending Dec. 15 increased to a seasonally adjusted 361,000, in line with the expected 360,000.\u00a0 The uptick in initial claims reversed the previous week\u2019s unexpectedly large decline to 343,000 claims.\u00a0 Despite the setback, initial claims are still slightly below the pre-Sandy four-week moving average of 367,750, signaling that the job market is slowly healing.\u00a0 Continuing claims for the week ending Dec. 8 came in at 3,225,000, slightly higher than the expected 3,220,000 and the preceding week\u2019s 3,213,000.\u00a0 Without seasonal adjustments, the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Dec. 1 was 5.4 million, which is 1.75 million lower than the comparable week in 2011.<\/p>\n
(+) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised Q3 GDP up from 2.7% to 3.1%, exceeding consensus expectations of 2.8%.\u00a0 The U.S. economy grew faster than both 2Q12 and 3Q11.\u00a0 The main driver of economic growth came from government spending, nonfarm inventory investment and consumer spending for durable goods.\u00a0 BEA estimated Q3 corporate profits rose sequentially by 2.4%, compared to 1.1% in Q2.\u00a0 Profits of financial corporations rose 17.5% or $68.1 billion in Q3, while profits of nonfinancial corporations fell 1.3%.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
(+) Personal income increased 0.6% to $85.8 billion in November, surpassing the median forecast of 0.3% growth.\u00a0 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) gained 0.4%, in line with investors\u2019 median forecast.\u00a0 The PCE price index declined 0.2%.\u00a0 Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index was up by 0.06%, slightly lower than the median forecast of 0.10%.\u00a0 Given the muted price changes, real disposable income rose 0.8% versus a 0.15% decline in October.\u00a0 The personal savings rate inched higher by 0.2% to 3.6% in November.<\/p>\n
(+) The November durable goods report came in stronger than expected.\u00a0 New orders for manufactured durable goods grew 0.7%, ahead of the consensus number of 0.3%.\u00a0 Excluding transportation, new orders jumped 1.6%.\u00a0 New orders for machinery had the largest increase, up 3.3%.\u00a0 Shipments of durable goods grew 1.5%, much stronger than the 0.1% increase in October.<\/p>\n
(-) The ongoing political gridlock surrounding the so-called fiscal cliff has clearly damaged consumer confidence.\u00a0 The final reading of the University of Michigan\u2019s Consumer Sentiment Index was much weaker at 72.9 in December, lagging the consensus expectation of 75.0.\u00a0 Although the index was up 4.3% year-over-year, the December index fell 11.9% compared to November\u2019s 82.7 level.\u00a0 The biggest decline came from a 17.8% plunge in the Consumer Expectations Index, which fell from 77.6 in November to 63.8.\u00a0 The majority of surveyed consumers expected a decline in real income, a slowdown in economic growth and a softer job market without a fiscal deal.<\/p>\n
Market Notes <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Period ending 12\/21\/2012<\/strong><\/td>\n 1 Week (%)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n YTD (%)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.47<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10.97<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 1.21<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 16.28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2.98<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 16.07<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 1.29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 17.45<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.02<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 13.82<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n -0.07<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.12<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n 3 Mo.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2 Yr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5 Yr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10 Yr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30 Yr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.02<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.25<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.83<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1.89<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.89<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.04<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.24<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.70<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1.72<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.87<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.06<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.26<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.75<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1.77<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.93<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Not being able to garner enough support, U.S. House Speaker John Boehner canceled Thursday night\u2019s vote on his \u201cPlan B\u201d to avert the fiscal cliff.\u00a0 The lawmakers then went on recess for Christmas and will come back on Dec. 27 for a last try to arrive at a deal.\u00a0 Diminishing optimism for a resolution to the fiscal crisis weighed on the market.<\/p>\n Domestic small cap stocks outperformed mid cap and large cap stocks last week.\u00a0 Economic cyclical sectors such as financial services stocks beat defensive sectors such as consumer staples stocks.\u00a0 Last Thursday, the major derivatives and commodity exchange Intercontinental Exchange, announced its $8.2 billion offer to acquire NYSE Euronext, the 220-year-old iconic equities exchange.\u00a0 Shares of NYSE Euronext surged more than 30%.<\/p>\n Stocks in other developed countries did better than emerging country stocks.\u00a0 Many European stock markets have hit 18-month highs as investors shifted money into the markets.\u00a0 The German market is trading at its highest level in nearly five years.\u00a0 For the YTD, the German market returned 31%.\u00a0 In Japan, newly elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will take office on Dec. 26 with a pro policy-easing agenda.\u00a0 Abe is expected to push the Bank of Japan to target at least a 2% annual rate of inflation versus the current 1% rate, which would weaken the Yen and help export sectors.\u00a0 For the MTD, the MSCI Japan Index produced a 4.6% total return, 1.3% ahead of the MSCI EAFE index.<\/p>\n In general, it was not a strong bond week.\u00a0 As the new year approaches, bond markets have become quieter with lighter volume and less activity.\u00a0 As a result of illiquidity, spreads got widened.<\/p>\n Last week, precious metals declined in reaction to the stronger Q3 GDP number.\u00a0 Gold fell $35 to $1,657, a 2% decline.<\/p>\n I wish you a Merry Christmas.<\/p>\n Karl Schroeder, RFC<\/p>\n Investment Advisor Representative<\/p>\n Schroeder Financial Services, Inc.<\/p>\n 480-895-0611<\/p>\n Economic notes key:\u00a0 (+) positive\/encouraging development, (0) neutral\/inconclusive\/no net effect, (-) negative\/discouraging development.\u00a0 <\/em><\/p>\n Sources:\u00a0 FocusPoint Solutions, Associated Press, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, Morgan Stanley, MSCI, Morningstar, Northern Trust, Oppenheimer Funds, Payden & Rygel, PIMCO, Thomson Reuters, Schroder\u2019s, Standard & Poor\u2019s, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, Wells Capital Management, Yahoo!, Zacks Investment Research.\u00a0 Index performance is shown as total return, which includes dividends, with the exception of MSCI-EM, which is quoted as price return\/excluding dividends.\u00a0 Performance for the MSCI-EAFE and MSCI-EM indexes is quoted in U.S. Dollar investor terms.<\/p>\n The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness.\u00a0 All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.\u00a0 Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product.\u00a0 Schroeder Financial Services, Inc. is a registered investment advisor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Manufacturing related news: (-) Superstorm Sandy\u2019s impact is still being felt in the manufacturing sector.\u00a0 The December Empire State Manufacturing Survey came in at -8.1, weaker than the expected -1.0.\u00a0 The general business conditions for New York manufacturers have been declining at a modest pace for five consecutive months.\u00a0 The new orders index dropped toRead more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-finance","category-real-estate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/938","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=938"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/938\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":939,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/938\/revisions\/939"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=938"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=938"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=938"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n\n
\n \n \n \n \n DJIA<\/td>\n \n \n \n S&P 500<\/td>\n \n \n \n Russell 2000<\/td>\n \n \n \n MSCI-EAFE<\/td>\n \n \n \n MSCI-EM<\/td>\n \n \n \n BarCap U.S. Aggregate<\/td>\n \n \n \n\n
\n U.S. Treasury Yields<\/strong><\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n 12\/31\/2011<\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n 12\/14\/2012<\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n 12\/21\/2012<\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n