It was a relatively light week from an economic standpoint.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
(+) Non-manufacturing ISM<\/b> for January was right at par with consensus, at a reading of 55.2 versus an expected 55.0.\u00a0 The look-ahead components of new orders and current business activity were weaker than in December, but remained in growth mode.\u00a0 The employment piece rose a bit as well.\u00a0 Additionally, anecdotal comments from the survey were generally positive, which was a welcome change considering overall business sentiment at year-end.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
(-) Factory orders<\/b> for December were a bit weaker than expected, up +1.8% versus a forecast +2.3%.\u00a0 Core capital goods were revised down slightly and inventory buildup was weaker than in prior months.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
(-) Non-farm productivity<\/b> in the fourth quarter of 2012 fell by -2.0%, relative to expectations for a -1.4% drop.\u00a0 This was primarily the result of a lower level of output compared to hours worked, so a change in the numerator changed the ratio.\u00a0 Hours worked grew at just over a +2% annualized rate, so have normalized to some extent.\u00a0 Unit labor costs rose by +4.5% (above the expected +3.0%) for the quarter and +1.9% for the full year.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
(+) The U.S. trade deficit<\/b> narrowed in December to -$38.5 bil. versus a forecast -$46.0 bil., as exports gained roughly 2%\u2014offset by a similar decline in imports.\u00a0 This monthly series is quite volatile, however, and follows a sharp increase in November imports perhaps due to Hurricane Sandy rebuilding effects.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
(-) Wholesale inventories<\/b> fell -0.1% for the month of December, which was a bit of a disappointment relative to the +0.4% increase expected.\u00a0 Most of this was due to a drop of nearly 4% in the auto sector inventory count.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
(-) Initial jobless claims<\/b> came in at 366k for the Feb. 2 ending week, which exceeded the consensus forecast 360k.\u00a0 Continuing claims<\/b> for the Jan. 26 ending week came in at 3,224k, which was a higher than the 3,197k expected.\u00a0 The claims figures for the prior week were also revised higher, so a bit of a negative showing on both counts relative to recent weeks.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Market Notes <\/i><\/b><\/p>\n 1 Week (%)<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n YTD (%)<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n -0.03<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 7.02<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.38<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 6.64<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 7.64<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n -1.44<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.38<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n -1.11<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.54<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.17<\/p>\n<\/td>\n -0.61<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n <\/p>\n 3 Mo.<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2 Yr.<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5 Yr.<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10 Yr.<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30 Yr.<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.05<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.25<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.72<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1.78<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.95<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.06<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.27<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.88<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.04<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.21<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.07<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.25<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.84<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1.99<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.17<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n In U.S. equities, technology and consumer staples outperformed by the widest margins, while telecom and materials lagged.\u00a0 Domestic markets overall gained with on balance earnings that exceeded expectations\u2014so far, out of nearly 350 companies that have reported, 75% have topped estimates (albeit through lowered figures).\u00a0 These earnings surprises have distributed evenly throughout the S&P to a large extent, but utilities, telecom and financials have shown the worst ratios of disappointments to surprises during the last quarter.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Foreign stock markets were led by strong performances in Japan and other developed Asian nations, such as Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore.\u00a0 Developed Western Europe brought up the rear with investor concern brought out by accusations of Spanish government corruption and uncertain prospects from Italy\u2019s upcoming general election.\u00a0 Additionally, the incoming Bank of England governor Mark Carney made comments alluding to judicious rather than aggressive use of easing, which kept interest rate expectations higher and bond prices tempered.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In fixed income, lower yields went hand-in-hand with strong weeks in long credit and long government bonds.\u00a0 Emerging market debt gained, while most foreign developed market indexes ended the week lower in keeping with the news issues mentioned above.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Retail and residential REITs in the U.S. led the week in that category, while Europe and Asia both lagged.\u00a0 On the year so far, it\u2019s been a similar story, with U.S. industrials up strongly (on par with U.S. equities), with retail and residential also doing well.\u00a0 Non-U.S. REITs have lagged.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Broad commodity indexes were about a percent lower, with general energy performing a bit worse\u2014down 2%\u2014while precious metals were generally flat, and the best performing contracts on the week.\u00a0 Year-to-date, energy commodities have moved largely higher, while several of the grains have corrected due to strong harvest numbers in South America and higher inventories in the U.S.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Have a good week.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Karl Schroeder, RFC<\/p>\n Investment Advisor Representative<\/p>\n Schroeder Financial Services, Inc.<\/p>\n 480-895-0611<\/p>\n Sources:\u00a0 FocusPoint Solutions, Associated Press, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank, FactSet, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, Morgan Stanley, MSCI, Morningstar, Northern Trust, Oppenheimer Funds, Payden & Rygel, PIMCO, Thomson Reuters, Schroder\u2019s, Standard & Poor\u2019s, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, Wells Capital Management, Yahoo!, Zacks Investment Research.\u00a0 Index performance is shown as total return, which includes dividends, with the exception of MSCI-EM, which is quoted as price return\/excluding dividends.\u00a0 Performance for the MSCI-EAFE and MSCI-EM indexes is quoted in U.S. Dollar investor terms.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness.\u00a0 All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.\u00a0 Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product.\u00a0 Schroeder Financial Services, Inc. is a registered investment advisor.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Notes key:\u00a0 (+) positive\/encouraging development, (0) neutral\/inconclusive\/no net effect, (-) negative\/discouraging development.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It was a relatively light week from an economic standpoint. (+) Non-manufacturing ISM for January was right at par with consensus, at a reading of 55.2 versus an expected 55.0.\u00a0 The look-ahead components of new orders and current business activity were weaker than in December, but remained in growth mode.\u00a0 The employment piece roseRead more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-finance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/951","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=951"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/951\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":952,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/951\/revisions\/952"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=951"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=951"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.sunlakesofarizona.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=951"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n\n
\n Period ending 2\/8\/2013<\/b><\/td>\n \n \n \n DJIA<\/td>\n \n \n \n S&P 500<\/td>\n \n \n \n Russell 2000<\/td>\n \n \n \n MSCI-EAFE<\/td>\n \n \n \n MSCI-EM<\/td>\n \n \n \n BarCap U.S. Aggregate<\/td>\n \n \n \n\n
\n U.S. Treasury Yields<\/b><\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n 12\/31\/2012<\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2\/1\/2013<\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n 2\/8\/2013<\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n